Each step ≈ ~5 points of national popular-vote margin. The slider
auto-starts at the blended generic-ballot + approval prediction below;
drag to apply your own call. The House feels the full wave; the Senate feels about half
(it's map- and candidate-driven). "Cook forecast" never moves. The "Simulated forecast"
treats the wave as uncertain and reports odds instead of columns.
Generic ballotD+8.7
(51.4% D / 42.7% R · avg of
5 aggregators ·
polls through 2026-10-25 ·
as of 2026-10-26)
Trump approval36.2%
(61.3% disapprove · as of 2026-10-26) —
history implies
D+8.9
Blended (50/50),
the national environment reads
D+8.8
(range D+5.3
to D+12.3) —
so the wave auto-starts at
+1.75.
The Senate feels about half (+0.88).
A central estimate, not a floor —
2022 had 41% approval but the result was only R+2.8.
How big is a wave? — the last 8 midterms
Year
President
Approval
House vote
Seats
1994
Clinton (D)
46%
R+7.0
R +54
🌊
1998
Clinton (D)
66%
D+1.0
R +-5
2002
G.W. Bush (R)
63%
R+5.0
D +-8
2006
G.W. Bush (R)
38%
D+8.0
D +30
🌊
2010
Obama (D)
45%
R+6.8
R +63
🌊
2014
Obama (D)
42%
R+5.7
R +13
2018
Trump (R)
42%
D+8.6
D +40
🌊
2022
Biden (D)
41%
R+2.8
R +9
The out-party almost always wins the national House vote; a "wave" (out-party clears ~+5,
i.e. wave ~+1.0) hit in 1994, 2006, 2010, 2018. The generic ballot measures that
national House vote directly; approval only predicts it (correlation ≈ 0.66–0.71),
which is why both are blended above. Either way the Senate is map- and
candidate-driven and barely responds — in 2018 a D+8.6 House wave still lost Senate seats.
U.S. Senate 14
Cook forecast
51 of 100 for control
Cook ratings as of 2026-10-26.
47 D7 Toss-up46 R
Toss-ups decide control: D needs 4 of 7,
R needs 5.
Call the toss-ups
Temporary — resets on reload. Updates this forecast only.
AK
market leans D
IA
market leans R
KS
market leans R
ME
market leans D
MI
market leans D
OH
TX
market leans D
Baseline
Not up: 34 D · 31 R
|
Safe up: 9 D · 12 R
|
Competitive: 14
Your forecast
51 of 100 for control
54 D1 Toss-up45 R
Democrats are projected to hold the majority — 54 of 100
(51 needed), before any of the 1 toss-up.
Leaned seats are favored, not guaranteed.
Call the toss-ups
Temporary — resets on reload. Updates this forecast only.
SC
market leans R
Market forecast
51 of 100 for control
Kalshi prediction-market prices · races with no market are toss-ups.
51 D1 Toss-up48 R
Democrats are projected to hold the majority — 51 of 100
(51 needed), before any of the 1 toss-up.
Leaned seats are favored, not guaranteed.
Call the toss-ups
Temporary — resets on reload. Updates this forecast only.
OH
Simulated forecast
51 of 100 for control
Cook ratings + your wave, with the wave's uncertainty applied to every race
at once and race-level noise on top. Probabilities, not columns.
Democrats strongly favored for control — they win it in 94% of scenarios.
94% D control4% tie2% R control
Expected seats: 53 D · 47 R.
80% of scenarios land Democrats between 51 and 55 seats.
Tipping point: 7 races tied at 79% D
— same Cook rating, no adjustment, so the model can't rank them.
Set lean_adjust in the overrides to separate them.
D needs 8 of 14 · R needs 8.
How it works
One national miss, shared by every race, of ±0.70 steps
(the anchor range) — when polls are off, they are off everywhere in the same direction.
Plus race-level noise of ±1.04 steps per seat.
Combined spread 1.1 steps, calibrated to Cook's July–August track record
(Lean 86%, Likely 95%, Solid 99.8% held). Computed exactly, not by dice roll.
A "tie" is neither side reaching the threshold — in the Senate that is 50–50, and the
Vice President's party controls.
AK Senate 2026
TBD Dvs.
Dan S. Sullivan ★R
Toss UpPVI R+6Kalshi: D 75¢ · R 26¢
Cook
Toss-up
You
D
Kalshi
D
Odds
D 79%
IA Senate 2026
Josh Turek Dvs.
Ashley Hinson R
OPEN (Ernst)Toss UpPVI R+6Kalshi: D 42¢ · R 59¢
Cook
Toss-up
You
D
Kalshi
R
Odds
D 79%
KS Senate 2026
Adam Hamilton Dvs.
Roger Marshall ★R
Toss UpPVI R+8Kalshi: D 40¢ · R 61¢
Cook
Toss-up
You
D
Kalshi
R
Odds
D 79%
ME Senate 2026
Troy Jackson Dvs.
Susan Collins ★R
Toss UpPVI D+4Kalshi: D 60¢ · R 42¢
Cook
Toss-up
You
D
Kalshi
D
Odds
D 79%
MI Senate 2026
Abdul El-Sayed Dvs.
Mike Rogers R
OPEN (Peters)Toss UpPVI R+0Kalshi: D 66¢ · R 35¢
Cook
Toss-up
You
D
Kalshi
D
Odds
D 79%
OH Senate Special 2026
TBD Dvs.
Jon Husted ★R
Toss UpPVI R+5
Cook
Toss-up
You
D
Kalshin/aOdds
D 79%
TX Senate 2026
James Talarico Dvs.
Ken Paxton R
OPEN (Cornyn)Toss UpPVI R+6Kalshi: D 65¢ · R 36¢
Cook
Toss-up
You
D
Kalshi
D
Odds
D 79%
MN Senate 2026
Peggy Flanagan Dvs.
Michele Tafoya R
OPEN (Smith)Lean DPVI D+3Kalshi: D 84¢ · R 16¢
Cook
D
You
D
Kalshi
D
Odds
D 96%
NH Senate 2026
Chris Pappas Dvs.
John E. Sununu R
OPEN (Shaheen)Lean DPVI D+2Kalshi: D 90¢ · R 11¢
Cook
D
You
D
Kalshi
D
Odds
D 96%
SC Senate 2026
Annie Andrews Dvs.
Darline Graham ★R
Lean RPVI R+8Kalshi: D 23¢ · R 77¢
Cook
R
You
Toss-up
Kalshi
R
Odds
R 54%
GA Senate 2026
Jon Ossoff Dvs.
Mike Collins R
Likely DPVI R+1Kalshi: D 94¢ · R 6¢
Cook
D
You
D
Kalshi
D
Odds
D 100%
MS Senate 2026
Scott Colom Dvs.
Cindy Hyde-Smith ★R
Likely RPVI R+11Kalshi: D 11¢ · R 89¢
Cook
R
You
R
Kalshi
R
Odds
R 85%
NC Senate 2026
Roy Cooper Dvs.
Michael Whatley R
OPEN (Tillis)Likely DPVI R+1Kalshi: D 96¢ · R 4¢
Cook
D
You
D
Kalshi
D
Odds
D 100%
NE Senate 2026
Dan Osborn Ivs.
Pete Ricketts ★R
Likely RPVI R+10Kalshi: D 0¢ · I 27¢ · R 75¢
Cook
R
You
R
Kalshi
R
Odds
R 85%
U.S. House 44
Cook forecast
218 of 442 for control
Cook ratings as of 2026-10-26.
216 D10 Toss-up216 R
Toss-ups decide control: D needs 2 of 10,
R needs 2.
Call the toss-ups
Temporary — resets on reload. Updates this forecast only.
CA
market leans D
FL
FL
IA
KY
MI
market leans D
MI
market leans D
MI
market leans D
MT
market leans R
NC
market leans D
Baseline
Not up: 0 D · 0 R
|
Safe up: 202 D · 196 R
|
Competitive: 44
Your forecast
218 of 442 for control
235 D11 Toss-up196 R
Democrats are projected to hold the majority — 235 of 442
(218 needed), before any of the 11 toss-ups.
Leaned seats are favored, not guaranteed.
Call the toss-ups
Temporary — resets on reload. Updates this forecast only.
AR
CO
market leans R
FL
FL
FL
IN
KS
MO
NC
NC
NE
Market forecast
218 of 442 for control
Kalshi prediction-market prices · races with no market are toss-ups.
218 D22 Toss-up202 R
Democrats are projected to hold the majority — 218 of 442
(218 needed), before any of the 22 toss-ups.
Leaned seats are favored, not guaranteed.
Call the toss-ups
Temporary — resets on reload. Updates this forecast only.
AL
AR
CA
CO
CO
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
IA
IN
KS
KY
MN
MO
NC
NC
NC
NE
Simulated forecast
218 of 442 for control
Cook ratings + your wave, with the wave's uncertainty applied to every race
at once and race-level noise on top. Probabilities, not columns.
Democrats strongly favored for control — they win it in 100% of scenarios.
100% D control0% tie0% R control
Expected seats: 237 D · 205 R.
80% of scenarios land Democrats between 229 and 244 seats.
Tipping point: 10 races tied at 94% D
— same Cook rating, no adjustment, so the model can't rank them.
Set lean_adjust in the overrides to separate them.
D needs 16 of 44 · R needs 22.
How it works
One national miss, shared by every race, of ±0.70 steps
(the anchor range) — when polls are off, they are off everywhere in the same direction.
Plus race-level noise of ±0.85 steps per seat.
Combined spread 1.1 steps, calibrated to Cook's July–August track record
(Lean 86%, Likely 95%, Solid 99.8% held). Computed exactly, not by dice roll.
A "tie" is neither side reaching the threshold — in the Senate that is 50–50, and the
Vice President's party controls.
CA-22 2026
Randy Villegas Dvs.
David Valadao ★R
Toss UpPVI D+1Kalshi: D 92¢ · R 10¢
Cook
Toss-up
You
D
Kalshi
D
Odds
D 94%
FL-14 2026
Kathy Castor ★Dvs.
TBD R
Toss UpPVI R+4
Cook
Toss-up
You
D
Kalshin/aOdds
D 94%
FL-22 2026
TBD Dvs.
TBD R
OPEN (Frankel)Toss UpPVI R+4
Cook
Toss-up
You
D
Kalshin/aOdds
D 94%
IA-02 2026
TBD Dvs.
TBD R
OPEN (Hinson)Toss UpPVI R+4
Cook
Toss-up
You
D
Kalshin/aOdds
D 94%
KY-06 2026
TBD Dvs.
TBD R
OPEN (Barr)Toss UpPVI R+7
Cook
Toss-up
You
D
Kalshin/aOdds
D 94%
MI-04 2026
Sean McCann Dvs.
Bill Huizenga ★R
Toss UpPVI R+3Kalshi: D 61¢ · R 39¢
Cook
Toss-up
You
D
Kalshi
D
Odds
D 94%
MI-07 2026
William Lawrence Dvs.
Tom Barrett ★R
Toss UpPVI EVENKalshi: D 73¢ · R 27¢
Cook
Toss-up
You
D
Kalshi
D
Odds
D 94%
MI-10 2026
Christina Hines Dvs.
Michael Bouchard Jr. R
OPEN (James)Toss UpPVI R+3Kalshi: D 67¢ · R 34¢
Cook
Toss-up
You
D
Kalshi
D
Odds
D 94%
MT-01 2026
Sam Forstag Dvs.
Aaron Flint R
OPEN (Zinke)Toss UpPVI R+5Kalshi: D 45¢ · R 56¢
Cook
Toss-up
You
D
Kalshi
R
Odds
D 94%
NC-01 2026
Don Davis ★Dvs.
Laurie Buckhout R
Toss UpPVI R+5Kalshi: D 81¢ · R 19¢
Cook
Toss-up
You
D
Kalshi
D
Odds
D 94%
AK-AL 2026
Bill Hill Ivs.
Nick Begich III ★R
Lean RPVI R+6Kalshi: D 3¢ · I 21¢ · R 77¢
Cook
R
You
D
Kalshi
R
Odds
D 75%
AL-02 2026
Shomari Figures ★Dvs.
TBD R
Lean RPVI R+7
Cook
R
You
D
Kalshin/aOdds
D 75%
AZ-01 2026
Amish Shah Dvs.
Jay Feely R
OPEN (Schweikert)Lean DPVI R+1Kalshi: D 80¢ · R 22¢
Cook
D
You
D
Kalshi
D
Odds
D 99%
AZ-02 2026
Jonathan Nez Dvs.
Eli Crane ★R
Lean RPVI R+7Kalshi: D 34¢ · R 68¢
Cook
R
You
D
Kalshi
R
Odds
D 75%
AZ-06 2026
JoAnna Mendoza Dvs.
Juan Ciscomani ★R
Lean DPVI EVENKalshi: D 90¢ · R 12¢
Cook
D
You
D
Kalshi
D
Odds
D 99%
CA-48 2026
TBD Dvs.
TBD R
OPEN (Issa)Lean DPVI D+2
Cook
D
You
D
Kalshin/aOdds
D 99%
CO-04 2026
TBD Dvs.
Lauren Boebert ★R
Lean RPVI R+9
Cook
R
You
D
Kalshin/aOdds
D 75%
CO-05 2026
TBD Dvs.
Jeff Crank ★R
Lean RPVI R+5
Cook
R
You
D
Kalshin/aOdds
D 75%
CO-08 2026
Manny Rutinel Dvs.
Gabe Evans ★R
Lean DPVI EVENKalshi: D 85¢ · R 17¢
Cook
D
You
D
Kalshi
D
Odds
D 99%
FL-13 2026
Leela Gray Dvs.
Anna Paulina Luna ★R
Lean RPVI R+6Kalshi: D 31¢ · R 72¢
Cook
R
You
D
Kalshi
R
Odds
D 75%
FL-25 2026
Jared Moskowitz ★Dvs.
TBD R
Lean DPVI R+3
Cook
D
You
D
Kalshin/aOdds
D 99%
FL-27 2026
TBD Dvs.
Maria Elvira Salazar ★R
Lean RPVI R+6
Cook
R
You
D
Kalshin/aOdds
D 75%
IA-01 2026
Michael Bridgford Ivs.
Mariannette Miller-Meeks ★R