Dispatch — 2026 General Election

National environment

R wave D wave

Neutral ≈ even national vote

Each step ≈ ~5 points of national popular-vote margin. The slider auto-starts at the approval-implied prediction below; drag to apply your own call. The House feels the full wave; the Senate feels about half (it's map- and candidate-driven). "Cook forecast" never moves.

Trump approval 38.3% (58.5% disapprove · as of 2026-06-11)

History points to a national environment of D+8.1 (range D+4.1 to D+12.1) — so the wave auto-starts at +1.50. The Senate feels about half (+0.75). Central estimate from House history, not a floor — 2022 had 41% approval but only R+2.8.

How big is a wave? — the last 8 midterms

Year	President	Approval	House vote	Seats
1994	Clinton (D)	46%	R+7.0	R +54	🌊
1998	Clinton (D)	66%	D+1.0	R +-5
2002	G.W. Bush (R)	63%	R+5.0	D +-8
2006	G.W. Bush (R)	38%	D+8.0	D +30	🌊
2010	Obama (D)	45%	R+6.8	R +63	🌊
2014	Obama (D)	42%	R+5.7	R +13
2018	Trump (R)	42%	D+8.6	D +40	🌊
2022	Biden (D)	41%	R+2.8	R +9

The out-party almost always wins the national House vote; a "wave" (out-party clears ~+5, i.e. wave ~+1.0) hit in 1994, 2006, 2010, 2018. Approval is the lever for the House (correlation ≈ 0.66–0.71); the Senate is map- and candidate-driven and barely responds — in 2018 a D+8.6 House wave still lost Senate seats.

U.S. Senate 11

Cook forecast

51 of 100 for control

Cook ratings as of 2026-06-11.

47 D 3 Toss-up 50 R

R is favored for control — needs 1 of 3 toss-ups. D tops out at 50, short of 51.

Call the toss-ups

Temporary — resets on reload. Updates this forecast only.

ME market leans D
MI market leans D
OH

Baseline

Not up: 34 D · 33 R | Safe up: 9 D · 13 R | Competitive: 11

Your forecast

51 of 100 for control

50 D 3 Toss-up 47 R

D is favored for control — needs 1 of 3 toss-ups. R tops out at 50, short of 51.

Call the toss-ups

Temporary — resets on reload. Updates this forecast only.

AK market leans D
IA market leans R
TX market leans R

Market forecast

51 of 100 for control

Kalshi prediction-market prices · Senate only · races with no market are toss-ups.

50 D 1 Toss-up 49 R

D is favored for control — needs 1 of 1 toss-up. R tops out at 50, short of 51.

Call the toss-ups

Temporary — resets on reload. Updates this forecast only.

ME Senate 2026

TBD D vs. Susan Collins ★ R

Toss Up PVI D+4 Kalshi: D 60¢ · R 42¢

Cook Toss-up You D Kalshi D

MI Senate 2026

TBD D vs. TBD R

OPEN (Peters) Toss Up PVI R+0 Kalshi: D 70¢ · R 27¢

Cook Toss-up You D Kalshi D

OH Senate Special 2026

TBD D vs. Jon Husted ★ R

Toss Up PVI R+5

Cook Toss-up You D Kalshi n/a

AK Senate 2026

TBD D vs. Dan Sullivan ★ R

Lean R PVI R+6 Kalshi: D 60¢ · R 40¢

Cook R You Toss-up Kalshi D

GA Senate 2026

Jon Ossoff D vs. TBD R

Lean D PVI R+1 Kalshi: D 81¢ · R 17¢

Cook D You D Kalshi D

IA Senate 2026

TBD D vs. TBD R

OPEN (Ernst) Lean R PVI R+6 Kalshi: D 40¢ · R 60¢

Cook R You Toss-up Kalshi R

NC Senate 2026

TBD D vs. TBD R

OPEN (Tillis) Lean D PVI R+1 Kalshi: D 85¢ · R 15¢

Cook D You D Kalshi D

NH Senate 2026

TBD D vs. TBD R

OPEN (Shaheen) Lean D PVI D+2 Kalshi: D 84¢ · R 18¢

Cook D You D Kalshi D

TX Senate 2026

TBD D vs. TBD R

OPEN (Cornyn) Lean R PVI R+6 Kalshi: D 43¢ · R 58¢

Cook R You Toss-up Kalshi R

MN Senate 2026

TBD D vs. TBD R

OPEN (Smith) Likely D PVI D+3 Kalshi: D 90¢ · R 11¢

Cook D You D Kalshi D

NE Senate 2026

Dan Osborn I vs. Pete Ricketts ★ R

Likely R PVI R+10 Kalshi: D 1¢ · I 35¢ · R 63¢

Cook R You R Kalshi R

U.S. House 31

Cook forecast

218 of 434 for control

Cook ratings as of 2026-06-11.

202 D 8 Toss-up 224 R

Republicans are projected to hold the majority — 224 of 434 (218 needed), before any of the 8 toss-ups. Leaned seats are favored, not guaranteed.

Call the toss-ups

Temporary — resets on reload. Updates this forecast only.

Baseline

Not up: 0 D · 0 R | Safe up: 195 D · 208 R | Competitive: 31

Your forecast

218 of 434 for control

210 D 16 Toss-up 208 R

Toss-ups decide control: D needs 8 of 16, R needs 10.

Call the toss-ups

Temporary — resets on reload. Updates this forecast only.

AZ-01 2026

TBD D vs. TBD R

OPEN (Schweikert) Toss Up PVI R+1

Cook Toss-up You D Kalshi n/a

AZ-06 2026

TBD D vs. Juan Ciscomani ★ R

Toss Up PVI EVEN

Cook Toss-up You D Kalshi n/a

CA-22 2026

TBD D vs. David Valadao ★ R

Toss Up PVI D+1

Cook Toss-up You D Kalshi n/a

CO-08 2026

TBD D vs. Gabe Evans ★ R

Toss Up PVI EVEN

Cook Toss-up You D Kalshi n/a

FL-25 2026

Jared Moskowitz ★ D vs. TBD R

Toss Up PVI R+3

Cook Toss-up You D Kalshi n/a

IA-01 2026

TBD D vs. Mariannette Miller-Meeks ★ R

Toss Up PVI R+4

Cook Toss-up You D Kalshi n/a

IA-03 2026

TBD D vs. Zach Nunn ★ R

Toss Up PVI R+2

Cook Toss-up You D Kalshi n/a

MI-07 2026

TBD D vs. Tom Barrett ★ R

Toss Up PVI EVEN

Cook Toss-up You D Kalshi n/a

CA-13 2026

Adam Gray ★ D vs. TBD R

Lean D PVI D+2

Cook D You D Kalshi n/a

CA-45 2026

Derek Tran ★ D vs. TBD R

Lean D PVI D+3

Cook D You D Kalshi n/a

CA-48 2026

TBD D vs. TBD R

OPEN (Issa) Lean D PVI D+2

Cook D You D Kalshi n/a

FL-14 2026

Kathy Castor ★ D vs. TBD R

Lean R PVI R+4

Cook R You Toss-up Kalshi n/a

FL-22 2026

TBD D vs. TBD R

OPEN (Frankel) Lean R PVI R+4

Cook R You Toss-up Kalshi n/a

MI-08 2026

Kristen McDonald Rivet ★ D vs. TBD R

Lean D PVI R+1

Cook D You D Kalshi n/a

MI-10 2026

TBD D vs. TBD R

OPEN (James) Lean R PVI R+3

Cook R You Toss-up Kalshi n/a

NC-01 2026

Don Davis ★ D vs. TBD R

Lean R PVI R+5

Cook R You Toss-up Kalshi n/a

AK-AL 2026

TBD D vs. Nick Begich III ★ R

Likely R PVI R+6

Cook R You Toss-up Kalshi n/a

AZ-02 2026

TBD D vs. Eli Crane ★ R

Likely R PVI R+7

Cook R You Toss-up Kalshi n/a

CA-21 2026

Jim Costa ★ D vs. TBD R

Likely D PVI D+5

Cook D You D Kalshi n/a

CO-05 2026

TBD D vs. Jeff Crank ★ R

Likely R PVI R+5

Cook R You Toss-up Kalshi n/a

FL-07 2026

TBD D vs. Cory Mills ★ R

Likely R PVI R+5

Cook R You Toss-up Kalshi n/a

FL-09 2026

Darren Soto ★ D vs. TBD R

Likely R PVI R+8

Cook R You Toss-up Kalshi n/a

FL-13 2026

TBD D vs. Anna Paulina Luna ★ R

Likely R PVI R+6

Cook R You Toss-up Kalshi n/a

FL-27 2026

TBD D vs. Maria Elvira Salazar ★ R

Likely R PVI R+6

Cook R You Toss-up Kalshi n/a

IA-02 2026

TBD D vs. TBD R

OPEN (Hinson) Likely R PVI R+4

Cook R You Toss-up Kalshi n/a

IN-01 2026

Frank J. Mrvan ★ D vs. TBD R

Likely D PVI D+1

Cook D You D Kalshi n/a

ME-02 2026

TBD D vs. TBD R

OPEN (Golden) Likely R PVI R+4

Cook R You Toss-up Kalshi n/a

MI-04 2026

TBD D vs. Bill Huizenga ★ R

Likely R PVI R+3

Cook R You Toss-up Kalshi n/a

MN-02 2026

TBD D vs. TBD R

OPEN (Craig) Likely D PVI D+3

Cook D You D Kalshi n/a

MT-01 2026

TBD D vs. TBD R

OPEN (Zinke) Likely R PVI R+5

Cook R You Toss-up Kalshi n/a

NC-11 2026

TBD D vs. Chuck Edwards ★ R

Likely R PVI R+5

Cook R You Toss-up Kalshi n/a