Election Tracker — 2026 General Election

National environment

R wave D wave

Neutral ≈ even national vote

Each step ≈ ~5 points of national popular-vote margin. The slider auto-starts at the approval-implied prediction below; drag to apply your own call. The House feels the full wave; the Senate feels about half (it's map- and candidate-driven). "Cook forecast" never moves.

Trump approval 38.8% (58.5% disapprove · as of 2026-07-28)

History points to a national environment of D+7.9 (range D+3.9 to D+11.9) — so the wave auto-starts at +1.50. The Senate feels about half (+0.75). Central estimate from House history, not a floor — 2022 had 41% approval but only R+2.8.

How big is a wave? — the last 8 midterms

Year	President	Approval	House vote	Seats
1994	Clinton (D)	46%	R+7.0	R +54	🌊
1998	Clinton (D)	66%	D+1.0	R +-5
2002	G.W. Bush (R)	63%	R+5.0	D +-8
2006	G.W. Bush (R)	38%	D+8.0	D +30	🌊
2010	Obama (D)	45%	R+6.8	R +63	🌊
2014	Obama (D)	42%	R+5.7	R +13
2018	Trump (R)	42%	D+8.6	D +40	🌊
2022	Biden (D)	41%	R+2.8	R +9

The out-party almost always wins the national House vote; a "wave" (out-party clears ~+5, i.e. wave ~+1.0) hit in 1994, 2006, 2010, 2018. Approval is the lever for the House (correlation ≈ 0.66–0.71); the Senate is map- and candidate-driven and barely responds — in 2018 a D+8.6 House wave still lost Senate seats.

U.S. Senate 11

Cook forecast

51 of 100 for control

Cook ratings as of 2026-07-28.

47 D 4 Toss-up 49 R

Toss-ups decide control: D needs 4 of 4, R needs 2.

Call the toss-ups

Temporary — resets on reload. Updates this forecast only.

AK market leans D
ME market leans D
MI market leans D
OH

Baseline

Not up: 34 D · 33 R | Safe up: 9 D · 13 R | Competitive: 11

Your forecast

51 of 100 for control

51 D 2 Toss-up 47 R

Democrats are projected to hold the majority — 51 of 100 (51 needed), before any of the 2 toss-ups. Leaned seats are favored, not guaranteed.

Call the toss-ups

Temporary — resets on reload. Updates this forecast only.

IA market leans R
TX market leans R

Market forecast

51 of 100 for control

Kalshi prediction-market prices · races with no market are toss-ups.

50 D 2 Toss-up 48 R

D is favored for control — needs 1 of 2 toss-ups. R tops out at 50, short of 51.

Call the toss-ups

Temporary — resets on reload. Updates this forecast only.

OH
TX market leans R

AK Senate 2026

TBD D vs. Dan S. Sullivan ★ R

Toss Up PVI R+6 Kalshi: D 55¢ · R 45¢

Cook Toss-up You D Kalshi D

ME Senate 2026

Troy Jackson D vs. Susan Collins ★ R

Toss Up PVI D+4 Kalshi: D 63¢ · R 38¢

Cook Toss-up You D Kalshi D

MI Senate 2026

TBD D vs. TBD R

OPEN (Peters) Toss Up PVI R+0 Kalshi: D 69¢ · R 31¢

Cook Toss-up You D Kalshi D

OH Senate Special 2026

TBD D vs. Jon Husted ★ R

Toss Up PVI R+5

Cook Toss-up You D Kalshi n/a

GA Senate 2026

Jon Ossoff D vs. Mike Collins R

Lean D PVI R+1 Kalshi: D 90¢ · R 11¢

Cook D You D Kalshi D

IA Senate 2026

Josh Turek D vs. Ashley Hinson R

OPEN (Ernst) Lean R PVI R+6 Kalshi: D 42¢ · R 60¢

Cook R You Toss-up Kalshi R

NC Senate 2026

Roy Cooper D vs. Michael Whatley R

OPEN (Tillis) Lean D PVI R+1 Kalshi: D 90¢ · R 11¢

Cook D You D Kalshi D

NH Senate 2026

TBD D vs. TBD R

OPEN (Shaheen) Lean D PVI D+2 Kalshi: D 85¢ · R 16¢

Cook D You D Kalshi D

TX Senate 2026

James Talarico D vs. Ken Paxton R

OPEN (Cornyn) Lean R PVI R+6 Kalshi: D 46¢ · R 55¢

Cook R You Toss-up Kalshi Toss-up

MN Senate 2026

TBD D vs. TBD R

OPEN (Smith) Likely D PVI D+3 Kalshi: D 92¢ · R 9¢

Cook D You D Kalshi D

NE Senate 2026

Dan Osborn I vs. Pete Ricketts ★ R

Likely R PVI R+10 Kalshi: D 0¢ · I 30¢ · R 70¢

Cook R You R Kalshi R

U.S. House 35

Cook forecast

218 of 438 for control

Cook ratings as of 2026-07-28.

203 D 8 Toss-up 227 R

Republicans are projected to hold the majority — 227 of 438 (218 needed), before any of the 8 toss-ups. Leaned seats are favored, not guaranteed.

Call the toss-ups

Temporary — resets on reload. Updates this forecast only.

AZ market leans D
AZ market leans D
CA market leans D
CO market leans D
FL
IA market leans D
IA market leans D
MI market leans R

Baseline

Not up: 0 D · 0 R | Safe up: 195 D · 208 R | Competitive: 35

Your forecast

218 of 438 for control

211 D 19 Toss-up 208 R

Toss-ups decide control: D needs 7 of 19, R needs 10.

Call the toss-ups

Temporary — resets on reload. Updates this forecast only.

AK market leans R
AL
AZ market leans R
CO
FL
FL
FL market leans R
FL
FL
FL
IA
KY
ME market leans R
MI market leans R
MI market leans D
MN
MT market leans R
NC market leans D
NC

Market forecast

218 of 438 for control

Kalshi prediction-market prices · races with no market are toss-ups.

210 D 13 Toss-up 215 R

Toss-ups decide control: D needs 8 of 13, R needs 3.

Call the toss-ups

Temporary — resets on reload. Updates this forecast only.

AZ-01 2026

Amish Shah D vs. Jay Feely R

OPEN (Schweikert) Toss Up PVI R+1 Kalshi: D 74¢ · R 33¢

Cook Toss-up You D Kalshi D

AZ-06 2026

JoAnna Mendoza D vs. Juan Ciscomani ★ R

Toss Up PVI EVEN Kalshi: D 83¢ · R 22¢

Cook Toss-up You D Kalshi D

CA-22 2026

Randy Villegas D vs. David Valadao ★ R

Toss Up PVI D+1 Kalshi: D 81¢ · R 20¢

Cook Toss-up You D Kalshi D

CO-08 2026

Manny Rutinel D vs. Gabe Evans ★ R

Toss Up PVI EVEN Kalshi: D 74¢ · R 28¢

Cook Toss-up You D Kalshi D

FL-25 2026

Jared Moskowitz ★ D vs. TBD R

Toss Up PVI R+3

Cook Toss-up You D Kalshi n/a

IA-01 2026

Christina Bohannan D vs. Mariannette Miller-Meeks ★ R

Toss Up PVI R+4 Kalshi: D 77¢ · R 28¢

Cook Toss-up You D Kalshi D

IA-03 2026

Sarah Trone Garriott D vs. Zach Nunn ★ R

Toss Up PVI R+2 Kalshi: D 63¢ · R 37¢

Cook Toss-up You D Kalshi D

MI-07 2026

TBD D vs. Tom Barrett ★ R

Toss Up PVI EVEN Kalshi: D 27¢ · R 41¢

Cook Toss-up You D Kalshi R

CA-13 2026

Adam Gray ★ D vs. Kevin Lincoln R

Lean D PVI D+2 Kalshi: D 92¢ · R 8¢

Cook D You D Kalshi D

CA-48 2026

TBD D vs. TBD R

OPEN (Issa) Lean D PVI D+2

Cook D You D Kalshi n/a

FL-14 2026

Kathy Castor ★ D vs. TBD R

Lean R PVI R+4

Cook R You Toss-up Kalshi n/a

FL-22 2026

TBD D vs. TBD R

OPEN (Frankel) Lean R PVI R+4

Cook R You Toss-up Kalshi n/a

IA-02 2026

TBD D vs. TBD R

OPEN (Hinson) Lean R PVI R+4

Cook R You Toss-up Kalshi n/a

MI-04 2026

TBD D vs. Bill Huizenga ★ R

Lean R PVI R+3 Kalshi: D 39¢ · R 69¢

Cook R You Toss-up Kalshi R

MI-08 2026

Kristen McDonald Rivet ★ D vs. TBD R

Lean D PVI R+1 Kalshi: D 88¢ · R 10¢

Cook D You D Kalshi D

MI-10 2026

TBD D vs. TBD R

OPEN (James) Lean R PVI R+3 Kalshi: D 65¢ · R 40¢

Cook R You Toss-up Kalshi D

NC-01 2026

Don Davis ★ D vs. Laurie Buckhout R

Lean R PVI R+5 Kalshi: D 56¢ · R 51¢

Cook R You Toss-up Kalshi D

NC-11 2026

TBD D vs. Chuck Edwards ★ R

Lean R PVI R+5

Cook R You Toss-up Kalshi n/a

NE-02 2026

Denise Powell D vs. Brinker Harding R

OPEN (Bacon) Lean D PVI D+3 Kalshi: D 87¢ · R 19¢

Cook D You D Kalshi D

AK-AL 2026

TBD D vs. Nick Begich III ★ R

Likely R PVI R+6 Kalshi: D 9¢ · R 79¢

Cook R You Toss-up Kalshi R

AL-02 2026

Shomari Figures ★ D vs. TBD R

Likely R PVI R+7

Cook R You Toss-up Kalshi n/a

AZ-02 2026

Jonathan Nez D vs. Eli Crane ★ R

Likely R PVI R+7 Kalshi: D 30¢ · R 69¢

Cook R You Toss-up Kalshi R

CA-21 2026

Jim Costa ★ D vs. Kyle Kirkland R

Likely D PVI D+5 Kalshi: D 89¢ · R 10¢

Cook D You D Kalshi D

CA-45 2026

Derek Tran ★ D vs. Chuong Vo R

Likely D PVI D+3 Kalshi: D 80¢ · R 19¢

Cook D You D Kalshi D

CO-05 2026

TBD D vs. Jeff Crank ★ R

Likely R PVI R+5

Cook R You Toss-up Kalshi n/a

FL-07 2026

TBD D vs. Cory Mills ★ R

Likely R PVI R+5

Cook R You Toss-up Kalshi n/a

FL-09 2026

Darren Soto ★ D vs. TBD R

Likely R PVI R+8

Cook R You Toss-up Kalshi n/a

FL-13 2026

TBD D vs. Anna Paulina Luna ★ R

Likely R PVI R+6 Kalshi: D 24¢ · R 81¢

Cook R You Toss-up Kalshi R

FL-27 2026

TBD D vs. Maria Elvira Salazar ★ R

Likely R PVI R+6

Cook R You Toss-up Kalshi n/a

IN-01 2026

Frank J. Mrvan ★ D vs. Barb Regnitz R

Likely D PVI D+1 Kalshi: D 90¢ · R 8¢

Cook D You D Kalshi D

KY-06 2026

TBD D vs. TBD R

OPEN (Barr) Likely R PVI R+7

Cook R You Toss-up Kalshi n/a

ME-02 2026

Matt Dunlap D vs. Paul LePage R

OPEN (Golden) Likely R PVI R+4 Kalshi: D 44¢ · R 64¢

Cook R You Toss-up Kalshi R

MN-01 2026

TBD D vs. Brad Finstad ★ R

Likely R PVI R+6

Cook R You Toss-up Kalshi n/a

MN-02 2026

TBD D vs. TBD R

OPEN (Craig) Likely D PVI D+3 Kalshi: D 92¢ · R 13¢

Cook D You D Kalshi D

MT-01 2026

Sam Forstag D vs. Aaron Flint R

OPEN (Zinke) Likely R PVI R+5 Kalshi: D 39¢ · R 64¢

Cook R You Toss-up Kalshi R